An analyst from DFC Intelligence is predicting that the Xbox One X will manage to sell 17 million units by 2021. Given that the console goes on sale in November 2017, that gives the console four years to meet these numbers, which doesn’t show a lot of confidence.
David Cole from DFC Intelligence suggested to Games Industry that the Xbox One X will only sell 17 million units by 2021 while 4K television sales are still on the rise. The technology has a long way to go before it becomes the new norm for every household, and as such there is no reason for many gamers to invest in an Xbox One X until that point. Some gamers may wish to upgrade their television at the same time as their console, but this almost doubles the cost for an individual.
Cole added that the Xbox One X is a product aimed at a small demographic of gamers those who want high-end PC graphics without having to purchase or build the PC. While this market does exist, Nintendo and Sony are offering far more value for money with their consoles, as well as longevity in the form of a constant influx of new and upcoming games.
The Xbox One X is being considered as part of the Xbox One family by Microsoft. Because of this the sales of the console will be added to those of the Xbox One and Xbox One S for an overall number, as Sony has with the Playstation 4. However, even taking into consideration the Xbox One X numbers, the forecasted Xbox One family units sold by 2021 is still only 63 million, a target that Sony is closing in on now with over 60 million Playstation 4 family units sold.
Cole went on to say that software has a chance of making a difference to the numbers. Between now and 2018 Microsoft has 130 games releasing for the Xbox One, of which 25 are exclusive. While exclusive titles are appealing to gamers it’s usually triple A titles such as Uncharted 4 or Halo 5 Guardians that bring in the numbers. The exclusives planned for release over the next year are mostly from smaller indie developers, and aren’t predicted to make a key difference in the number of Xbox One X units sold.
The interview concluded with the statement that Microsoft is unlikely to dominate the console market as it did before with the Xbox 360, but their renewed investment in backwards compatibility is certainly going to help.