How well will Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 sell?

The launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 is pivotal not only for Activision Blizzard but also for Microsoft’s strategy with Game Pass. Coming as a day-one release on Game Pass, it marks the first time a Call of Duty title is available through the subscription service at launch. Microsoft hopes this move will significantly drive Game Pass growth, particularly after its $75 billion Activision acquisition.

However, the launch introduces potential risks. Xbox has increased the Game Pass Ultimate tier to $19.99/month to access the game at launch, alongside a price restructuring of its lower tiers. Microsoft also ended its $1 trial, mirroring tactics used before Starfield’s release, signaling a shift toward monetizing new subscribers more effectively. Despite these efforts, there is a concern that users might subscribe briefly to play the game and then cancel, creating volatility in subscription growth.

Balancing revenue from PlayStation sales and Xbox subscriptions presents another challenge. Although Microsoft owns the franchise, PlayStation remains a vital sales platform. If many players opt to pay $70 for the game on PlayStation rather than subscribing to Game Pass, the strategy could backfire. Additionally, PlayStation will still take a cut of revenues from sales on its platform, potentially undercutting Microsoft’s profits.

The absence of older Call of Duty titles on Game Pass further complicates matters. Integrating the back catalog could have boosted anticipation and subscriptions, yet this opportunity remains untapped, raising questions about Microsoft’s content strategy post-acquisition.

Historically, the Black Ops series has enjoyed great success, often standing toe-to-toe with the Modern Warfare series. However, while Modern Warfare titles tend to emphasize more grounded, tactical gameplay, Black Ops games are known for their fast-paced multiplayer modes and elaborate, sometimes surreal storylines. This differentiation has attracted dedicated followings for each sub-series. However, in recent years, the Modern Warfare reboots have enjoyed stronger commercial success and critical acclaim, partly due to better timing and innovative updates like Warzone integration. For Black Ops 6 to succeed, it needs to reignite excitement with both casual fans and competitive players, which could be challenging given the prominence of Modern Warfare in recent years.

The release will ultimately serve as a test for Microsoft’s Game Pass strategy. If Black Ops 6 fails to move the needle significantly, it will raise doubts about the sustainability of Microsoft’s subscription-first approach. However, a strong performance could validate Microsoft’s investment and establish Game Pass as the go-to platform for major game launches. Microsoft’s ability to balance subscriptions with direct game sales will define how successful this release—and the broader Game Pass strategy—turns out over time.